Gold price prediction today: Is gold set to exhibit a bullish bias in the near term? Top factors to watch out for

Gold price prediction today: Gold prices have pulled back from recent highs, but there is an underlying bullish bias, says Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Below is his outlook for gold prices today and this week, along with top factors that will influence the movement of the yellow metal:Gold is hovering around $5,000 after weaker-than-expected US inflation reinforced expectations of Fed easing, driving the 10-year US Treasury yield lower with market participants to price nearly 50% odds of a third rate cut by December. Inflation data last week was reported 0.1% lower than estimates. Recent comments from Kevin Warsh signaling a preference for lower policy rates add to expectations of two 25bp cuts in March and June, which would further compress real yields and support gold inflows. Geopolitical risks remain elevated, with reports of Washington deploying the USS Gerald R. Ford to the Middle East amid stalled Iran nuclear talks boosting safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, markets are increasingly focused on the potential inflationary impact of renewed tariff threats from Trump, alongside lingering questions over Fed credibility. Notably, gold is trading at a discount for the first time in nearly a month even as Chinese demand strengthens, with Shanghai warehouse stocks crossing 100 tonnes, highlighting robust physical buying interest.Focus this week will be on FOMC meeting minutes, PCE price index. The US market remains shut amidst the President’s day holiday while China’s market remains shut for the week amidst lunar new year.Technically, MCX Gold on the daily chart continues to maintain a broader bullish bias despite the recent pullback, with price holding well above the key medium-term support zone near 148,000–150,000, which coincides with the 20-day moving average and prior breakout levels. Immediate resistance is seen around 158,000–160,000, where recent highs and upper supply zones are clustered; a sustained close above this band could open the path toward fresh highs. Fibonacci retracement levels suggest strong structural support near the 0.382 and 0.5 zones around 139,000–134,000 on a deeper correction, keeping the broader uptrend intact unless these levels are decisively breached. Volume patterns indicate that the sharp spike seen during the recent sell-off was not followed by sustained heavy distribution, suggesting profit booking rather than trend reversal. From a Bollinger Band perspective, price recently touched the upper band during the rally and has since cooled toward the middle band (20-SMA), indicating volatility compression and potential base formation; if price stabilizes above the mid-band and bands begin to expand again, it would favor a continuation move higher, whereas a decisive break below the middle band could trigger short-term corrective pressure toward lower supports.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)